Theresa May has to go for a soft Brexit

Posted bygustafkilanderPosted inUncategorized

BreXrated, March 2017

The negotiations concerning how we leave the European Union are due to begin this month. Regardless of how many times the Government has said Brexit means Brexit, they’ve never told us what kind of Brexit they’re going for. It has to be a soft one.

There are a number of possible versions of the UK’s relationship to the EU after we leave. There’s hard Brexit, medium Brexit, but the only one that makes any sense is a soft Brexit. The Government wants access to the single market and at the same time controlled immigration. We’re not going to get both. The other 27 EU members have said they won’t give Britain any special treatment.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “Anyone who wants to leave this family can’t expect to get rid of all obligations while holding onto privileges. We will make sure the negotiations aren’t based on the principle of cherry picking.”

There are two very different alternatives. The Prime Minister has said that we won’t leave “just to give up control of immigration again”. A hard Brexit means that we’ll end up outside of the single market and the customs union. With 44 percent of British exports going to the EU, trade will be hit hard once they become subject to tariffs and other barriers. According to the ever so deplored experts, the status of London as a financial hub would be in jeopardy outside the single market. That’s why it needs to be a soft Brexit.

Oliver Letwin, the director of the Brexit unit until Theresa May became Prime Minister, likened the Government’s wish list to having “cake and eating it”. An Ipsos Mori poll found that 45 percent of Britons prioritize access to the single market, while 39 percent think control of immigration is more important. That’s why it needs to be a soft Brexit.

A soft Brexit would have us remain in the European Economic Area (EEA), which includes all EU members, plus Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. To be in the EEA, you have to accept the freedom of movement of four things: goods, services, capital, and people. Giving up the first three to get rid of the fourth would have serious negative effects on the UK economy. A soft Brexit would shield us from that blow.

The EU without Britain is still a union of around 450 million people, producing a lot more goods and services than the UK ever could, making the EU a much more attractive business partner for anyone looking to strike a new trade deal. In the aftermath of a soft Brexit, Britain would still be in the single market and the customs union, and financial services would be able to continue operating as usual.

There would be no tariffs or other barriers to exports. We would be out of the European Union but British companies wouldn’t face losing countless business partners. That’s why it needs to be a soft Brexit.

The share of Scotland’s exports going to the EU is four times higher than the rest of the UK. The Scots voted overwhelmingly for Remain, 62 percent to 38 percent, with all 32 council areas voting to stay in the EU. Former first minister Alex Salmond has said he expects there to be a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 if Scotland’s concerns are not heard in the negotiations with Brussels.

Remaining in the EEA would allow Scotland to continue trading with their EU partners as per usual. This probably means that Scotland wouldn’t vote to leave the UK before the next general election. That’s why it needs to be a soft Brexit.

The Government might be telling you that they have a plan for the UK’s relationship to the EU post-Brexit, but that plan can be all but gone in 2019 after two years of angry negotiations with a group of people who feel that you ruined their perfect bureaucratic orgy.

We can pretend that we have the element of surprise, and therefore the upper hand in these negotiations, but it’s just not the case. The powerful coalition of European center-right parties otherwise known as the European People’s Party (EPP), will want to make this hurt. The Conservatives were part of the EPP until 2009, when David Cameron pulled out, eagerly encouraged, or rather threatened by his eurosceptic backbenchers.

Michel Barnier, the Vice-President of the EPP and the chief negotiator for the European Commission, has demanded that the talks be done in French. I seriously doubt Brexit secretary David Davis will make more sense in French than he does in English. We’ll have to accept that we’ll not get everything we want from these negotiations. The best deal we can conceivably get is a soft Brexit.

If you want to stay at the apparently less than perfect bureaucratic orgy because it’s better than facing the snowstorm outside, you can – by opting for a soft Brexit. The other member states will probably insist we clean up our mess, but that’s a whole lot better than stepping outside and being swept away by an avalanche. The sensible thing to do is to endure the angry stares and disapproving comments. Stay inside, because regardless of what Nigel Farage is telling you, we don’t have an uber waiting just outside. All we have is an umbrella that looks like it could fall apart at any second. That’s why it needs to be a soft Brexit.

A soft Brexit will adhere to the referendum result without screwing us over, so grab your teddy bears and put on your pajamas, we’re jumping into the cushy pillow fort that is the EEA.

Published by gustafkilander

I’m a Swedish journalist with international experience, having worked in the UK and Sweden, and having studied in the US, Britain and Sweden. Most recently, I was tasked with explaining American politics and the Democratic primaries for the online news department of the Swedish public TV broadcaster, SVT, where I made videos from scratch. This required a variety of skills like researching, scripting, presenting, filming, lighting, editing, and writing. Before that, I worked for Swedish public radio, where I edited videos and images for the social media feeds of the news department. I also live-tweeted important radio events and was in charge of writing the first words published by Swedish public radio on numerous stories. While I was studying in London, I was a video producer for The Sun, one of the biggest British newspapers. I quickly took on a lot of responsibilities in a fast-paced news environment.